The most interesting week of the stockmarket!
I think this has to be one of the top 50 most interesting weeks in the stock market history. I will go through it day by day.
Monday (03.06.2024): Nvidia launches new chips. France got downgraded, but it didn’t seem like the european stockmarket was affected by the news. It acctually went the wrong way at the beggining. Later that day it went 0.7% in red. Gamestop surged 80% because Roaring Kitty posted his 116 million usd position. It is acctually insane. Plus Nvidia closed up 5% that day. at the time third biggest company in the world went up 5% on no news. INSANE. And there was bad macro from USA that day.
Tuesday (04.06.2024): India’s stock index Nifty 50 went down 9,8% before it went up and closed on 6,7 in red. AN INDEX WENT DOWN 9,8% IN A DAY! It crashed because of election. They even said that they would close if it went under 10%, matching halt. Oil crached that day, General Motors, Salesforce insiders sold stock last month news, worse then expected US job openings, all in all just bad news that day. Unfortunately, Nvidia lifted the whole market because Elon Musk ordered AI chips to Tesla and X. So some indexes ended acctually in green. Shouldn’t be possible.
Wednesday (05.06.2024): This was an insane day. Bad macro that they. Non Farm much worse then expected. But the real insane thing is Nvidia went up 5% that day, joining the 3 trillion dollar club and surpasing Apple. Now the second biggest company in the world. Up 1000% in 1,5 years. PE at 71, which means if you invest now. The company needs to run 71 years to get their money back. Gained 1 Trillion usd in one month. Up almost 10% every week, it is actually insane. I’m speechless. Nvidia is moving the whole market. Nvidia is the market, the market is Nvidia. Apple asking Nvidia for help with AI, because Apple is loosing money. Soon, Jensen Huang will be the richest man in the world with this pace.
Thursday (06.06.2024): German factory orders much much worse then expected. Nvidia up even more that day. But the main event was ECB with ratecuts. They lowered the rate with 25 basispoints, but they said inflation is going up and had a higher inflation forecast for 2024 and 2025… But they still lowered the rate. Makes no sense. Lagarde got lots of criticism that day. They lowered the rate to get more liquidity in the market, plus that Europe is struggeling hard. But they are only pushing the problems forward. Shortterm it is better to lower the rate, longterm it is worse. Gamestop surged 40% that day because Roaring Kitty livestreamed that day. It seems like Roaring Kitty is the Gamestop stock wizzard. He could literally move the stock to whereever he wants. INSANE! Plus this newsarticle:
Yield curve now flagging recession for longest time on record, but growth persists By Investing.com
This is what I talked about last article, but more indepth.
Friday (07.06.2024): This was one of the strangest days. Dax crashed in the morning. Gamestop crashed because the missed earnings. Sales down 29% from year prior.
GameStop (GME) Q1 earnings, plans to sell more stock (cnbc.com)
But people bought because of one man, and forgot the value of the company.
Anyways, this day, Non-Farm employment change, Average Hourly earnings m/m and Unemployment rate was the big macro. The most important numbers of the month. And it was FAAAR OFFF. Non farm expected 182k new jobs, Actual 272k! MEANS NO FREAKING RATECUT FOR POWELL. ALL INDEXES SHOULD GO TO HELL. Even worse is that Bloomberg said whispering numbers expected 160k. Plus Average hourly earnings also went up. Powell have tricked everybody. at the end of 2023 he said seven ratecuts for 2024, and the stock market went up thousands of point. We are now in June, and it looks like we lucky to even get one. Bonds skyrocketed, comodyties crashed, crypto crashed and Dollar up. 10 year treasury went up 5%. Why the hell would someone invest in the stockmarket if they can get 5% return on their money riskfree. The numbers was insane strong. But the strangest thing is that the stockmarket didn’t crash. It went up later that day. Normally if it doesn’t make sense, it follows Nvidia. But it didn’t that day. Very strange. I honestly don’t know why the stockmarket didn’t crash. My theory is that retail buys on dip because it has been the right thing to do the last 6 months. Because they don’t know better.
Hope I gave you some insight on why the market is fucked and doesn’t make sense right now. Not normal at all. It is an AI bubble, and it will crash this year, I just don’t know when. Next week will be interesting with CPI and PPI.
Best Regards
CEO J.E.V
